Nature Communications, Published online: 19 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s41467-026-74612-w Rising seas threaten the capacity of coral reefs to maintain their structure and ecosystem services on which millions depend. This study analyses Indo-Pacific Holocene fossil records to show that 76% of reefs risk submergence by 2100, with reef growth unlikely to be sufficient when sea-level rise exceeds 5.3 mm yr⁻¹.