Published on June 17, 2026 7:18 AM GMT TLDR: AI safety is confusing to navigate, because it is a pre-paradigmatic field composed of people making different, theoretical arguments for why x-risk is likely (or unlikely). Arguments that x-risk is likely are unfalsifiable and have little empirical evidence. This does not mean they’re wrong. Much of your probability of x-risk boils down to your priors, and whether you more heavily weight theory or empiricism I think AI safety is important to work on,