HubbardOBrienEconomics.com Blog

Image generated by ChatGPT On this Labor Day, we look at an important issue: In recent years, women have been faring better than men in the job market. The following figure shows that, for workers 20 years and older, men still hold more jobs than women do, but the gap has been closing. For example, … Continue reading "What’s Happened to Male Employment?"

Image created by ChatGPT This morning (September 4), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report (often called the “jobs report”) for August. The report showed an unexpectedly large increase in employment. The jobs report has two estimates of the change in employment during the month: one estimate from the establishment survey, often … Continue reading "Unexpec…

Image created by ChatGPT A recent article in the Wall Street Journal discussed the surprising fact that some colleges are sending letters of acceptance to students who haven’t actually applied for admission: “Hundreds of colleges are sending students letters of admission—without even requiring an application. … Known as ‘direct admissions,’ this expedited process is free … Continue reading "Which…

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh (Photo from federalreserve.com) Each year since 1982, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has sponsored an economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. (The site was supposedly first chosen in the hopes that Fed Chair Paul Volcker would attend because of the opportunities for fly fishing in the local … Continue reading "Fed Chair Warsh Takes a More Haw…

Image created by ChatGPT The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released two reports this morning (August 26): “GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026” and “Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026.” The BEA’s second estimate is that real GDP grew at annual rate of 1.5 percent in second quarter of 2026, which is … Continue reading "New BEA Releases Show Steady Inflation and Hi…

Image created by ChatGPT When did the recession that began at the end of 2007 turn into the Global Financial Crisis?  Most economists believe a key turning occurred on Monday, September 15, 2008, when the Lehman Brothers investment bank declared bankruptcy. By the time Lehman failed, the U.S. economy was already in a recession caused … Continue reading "Did the British Government Cause the Global…

Join authors Glenn Hubbard & Tony O’Brien as they discuss rising long-term bond yields and their economic implications. Topics discussed include the federal government’s large budget deficit, concerns about fiscal credibility, and the Federal Reserve’s inability to meet its inflation target. The discussion also touched on the connection between federal budget deficits and trade imbalances, … Cont…

Image created by ChatGPT, as are the other images in this post. Technological breakthroughs are often embodied in machinery, equipment, or, as in the case of artificial intelligence (AI), software. For example, the Industrial Revolution of the late 1700s, which involved mass production of low-priced cotton textiles, was made possible by the development in England of large … Continue reading "AI o…

Supports: Microeconomics and Economics, Chapter 14, Section 14.2. Image created by ChatGPT An article in the Wall Street Journal discussed why the price of chicken in supermarkets has been falling. The article notes that, “Bigger chicken breeds and flocks not being decimated by disease over the summer have led to a glut in an industry that slaughters … Continue reading "Solved Problem: Too Much C…

Image created by ChatGPT Today (August 12), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on the consumer price index (CPI) for July. Lower energy and grocery prices contributed to a slight decline in the inflation rate in July compared with June. The following figure compares headline CPI inflation (the blue line) and core CPI inflation (the red line). Headline … Continue reading "As …

This morning (August 7), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report (often called the “jobs report”) for July. The report showed a decline in employment.  The jobs report has two estimates of the change in employment during the month: one estimate from the establishment survey, often referred to as the payroll survey, and … Continue reading "Employment in July…

Supports: Macroeconomics, Chapter 14, Section 14.1, Economics, Chapter 24, Section 24.1, and Money, Banking, and the Financial System, Chapter 2, Section 2.1. Image created by ChatGPT A rare book dealer who often posts to YouTube made the following observation in one of his videos: “… thousands of years ago, they had the barter system where you could … Continue reading "Solved Problem: Is Using M…

Image created by ChatGPT The following was the first sentence of an article yesterday on axios.com discussing the market for beef: “Beef sales are plunging, but processors continue to raise prices as a yearslong cattle shortage strains the industry.” The sentence seems to be describing a paradox: Why would meat processors, such as Tyson, JBS, … Continue reading "Breaking News: Demand Curves Slope…

Image created by ChatGPT At the close of trading on Friday, July 31, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was 5.28 percent. As the following figure shows, that yield was the highest since July 2007, before the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Note: As we discuss in Money, Banking, and … Continue reading "What Explains the Rise in 30-Year Treasury Yields?"

Image created by ChatGPT The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released two reports this morning (July 30): “GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026” and “Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026.” The BEA’s initial—or advance—estimate is that real GDP grew in the second quarter of 2026 at annual rate of 1.5 percent, down from an annual … Continue reading "New BEA Releases Show Slower Growth Than …

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and colleagues discuss policy at the June FOMC meeting (Photo from federalreserve.gov.) There was some uncertainty as to whether at its meeting that ended today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would leave unchanged its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent. As of yesterday, … Continue reading "FOMC Holds Target Rate Constant, with …

Image created by Lena Buonanno. Thoroughly revised with an up-to-date discussion of the Fed’s operating procedures and many new features, the new Fifth Edition is available now for fall course adoption.  Instructors can request an examination copy here.

Image created by ChatGPT Today (July 14), the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on the consumer price index (CPI) for June. In May, higher energy prices caused by the conflict in Iran contributed to inflation increasing to the highest rate in more than three years. In June, as energy prices decreased, inflation experienced … Continue reading "CPI Inflation Comes in Below Expect…

Image generated by ChatGPT This morning (July 2)—one day early because tomorrow is a federal holiday—the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its “Employment Situation” report (often called the “jobs report”) for June. The report showed a smaller than expected increase in employment.  The jobs report has two estimates of the change in employment during the … Continue reading "Weaker than Exp…